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气候变化对我国各地区水资源影响的时空格局变化,是气候变化影响评估的重要内容。论文以漳卫河为研究流域,采用线性回归法、MannKendall非参数检验等方法,分析了1957—2001年的水文气象要素变化特征;基于数字高程模型、土地利用和土壤类型等资料,建立了SWAT分布式水文模型,验证了SWAT模型在该流域的适用性;根据IPCC第四次评估报告多模式结果,分析了IPCC SRES-A2、A1B、B1情景下21世纪降水、气温、径流、蒸发的响应过程。结果表明漳卫河流域未来2011—2099年降水量变化较基准期呈现出增加趋势,年平均气温较基准期也呈现出显著的上升趋势,各年代径流量较基准期将出现先减少后增大的态势。
Changes in the temporal and spatial patterns of the impacts of climate change on water resources in various regions of China are important components of climate change impact assessment. The paper takes Zhangwei River as a research basin, analyzes the characteristics of hydrological and meteorological elements from 1957 to 2001 by using linear regression method, Mann-Kendall nonparametric test and other methods. Based on the data of digital elevation model, land use and soil type, SWAT Distributed hydrological model to verify the applicability of the SWAT model in this basin. According to the multi-model results of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, the response of precipitation, temperature, runoff and evaporation in the 21st century under IPCC SRES-A2, A1B and B1 scenarios process. The results show that the precipitation in the future of Zhangwei River Basin from 2011 to 2099 shows an increasing trend compared with the baseline period, and the annual average temperature also shows a significant upward trend compared with the baseline period. The runoff in each year will first decrease and then increase The situation.