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对我国电影市场的影片生命周期进行了分析,建立了考虑季节性因素和其他影响因素的Gamma需求模型,并结合计量模型中的变截距面板数据模型与普通多元回归模型应用于研究电影观众人数及其衰减情况.估计结果显示:建立的模型能够较准确地反映我国电影市场观众人数.的变化规律.此外,针对我国电影市场,量化研究了影星的票房号召力、续集、投资规模等因素对观众人数的影响情况,为电影决策者制定策略以及预测新上映影片的观众需求做指导与借鉴.实证结果显示:考虑档期因素的必要性,并且发现较多的观众会导致影片观众人数的下降显得更快些,大制作和小制作电影的观众衰减速度相差很小,模拟支持研究结论的合理性.
This paper analyzes the film life cycle of China’s movie market and establishes a Gamma demand model that takes into account the seasonal factors and other influencing factors. Combined with the variable intercept panel data model and the ordinary multiple regression model in the measurement model, And its decay situation.The estimated results show that the model can accurately reflect the changing rules of the number of viewers in the movie market in China.Furthermore, in view of the movie market in our country, we quantitatively study the movie box office appeal, sequel, investment scale and other factors The impact of the number of spectators, guide and reference for the film makers to develop strategies and predict the audience needs of the newly released film.Experimental results show that: Considering the necessity of stalling factors, and found that more viewers will lead to the decline in the number of video viewers seem Faster, the difference between audience decay rates for big and small productions is quite small, and the simulations support the rationality of the findings.