【摘 要】
：
A new model was developed to predict forestland demand of China during the years of 2010-2050 in terms of the concept of forest ecosystem services. On the basis
【机 构】
：
State Key Laboratory of Urban and Regional Ecology, Research Center for Eco-Environmental Sciences,
【基金项目】
：
国家重点科研发展项目;国家自然科学基金
论文部分内容阅读
A new model was developed to predict forestland demand of China during the years of 2010-2050 in terms of the concept of forest ecosystem services. On the basis of the relationship between forest ecosystem services and classified forest management, we hypothesized that the ecological-forest provides ecological services, whereas commercial-forest supplies wood and timber production, and the influences of the growth of population, social-economic development target, forest management methods and the technology changes on forest resources were also taken into account. The prediction reveals that the demand of total forestland of China will be 244.8, 261.2 and 362.2 million ha by the year 2010, 2020 and 2050, respectively. The results demonstrated that China will be confronted with a shortage of forest resources, especially with lack of ecological-oriented forests, in the future. It is suggested that sustainable management of forest resources must be reinforced and more attention should be drown no enhancing the service function of forest ecosystem.
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