在对标准长期国际资本流动模型进行改进的基础上,利用动态学原理分析了有外资流入的国内经济实现新稳定状态的过程,发现国内经济会沿着两条收敛速率不同的鞍点路径中的某一条路径向新的稳定状态收敛,至于最终会沿着哪条路径收敛,取决于经济的初始值情况。对外资流入前后两种情形下国内经济稳态增长的比较静态分析结果显示,外资流入具有水平效应,使得国内经济增长率在短期内有所提高,但并未对稳态增长率产生影响,即外资流入不具有增长效应。利用状态空间模型就外资流入对中国经济增长率动态影响的实证结果表明,改革开放以来,中国经济增长率的波动主要由外资流入的波动引起。 Based on the improvement of the standard long-term international capital flow model, this paper analyzes the process of realizing the new steady state of the domestic economy with inflow of foreign capital by using the principle of dynamic theory. It is found that the domestic economy follows two saddle point paths with different convergence rates The convergence of a path to a new steady state converges to which path eventually converges, depending on the initial value of the economy. The comparative static analysis of steady growth of domestic economy under the two situations before and after foreign capital inflow shows that the inflow of foreign capital has a horizontal effect and the domestic economic growth rate has risen in the short term but has no effect on the steady growth rate, Inflow of foreign capital does not have a growth effect. Empirical results of the dynamic inflow of FDI on China’s economic growth rate using the state-space model show that since the reform and opening up, the fluctuation of China’s economic growth rate has been mainly caused by the inflow of foreign capital.