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1975～1980年在肖山县棉区应用高斯(Gossyplure)性诱剂预测棉红铃虫的发生,并用常规测报方法作比较。第一代红铃虫80%发蛾日,室内蛾峰比高斯诱蛾峰早3～10天,平均6.8天。与棉田百株棉卵高峰比较,室内蛾峰与卵峰相差8～17天,平均13.7天;高斯诱蛾与卵峰相差1～13天,平均6.8天。高斯诱蛾预测更为可靠。第二代查虫花预测50%蛾峰与高斯诱蛾峰相差2～6天,平均4.2天。虫花预测蛾峰与卵峰相差1～6天,平均2天;高斯诱蛾峰与卵峰相差3～7天,平均4.5天。两种预测方法均为可靠。第三代以二代至三代的30天期距预测与高斯诱蛾峰相差1～15天,平均7.3天。期距预测与卵峰相差2～16天,平均6.6天;高斯诱蛾峰与卵峰相差2～8天,平均4.7天。高斯诱蛾要比期距预测更为可靠。六年的二代蛾量(7/21～8/20)与青铃被害率的相关系数为r_(0.1)=0.729<0.75水平;降雨量(7/21～8/15)与青铃被害率的相关系数r_(0.05)=0.811<1-0.8561,达显著水平。根据以上关系,得到二元回归预测式为:Y=46.843+0.0176X_1—0.1235X_2。 x_1为二代蛾量,x_2为降雨量,y为青铃被害率。当y>50为重发年,y<35%为轻发年,y在35%～50%之间为中发年,求得各年的危害率理论值与实测值基本符合。应用高斯性诱剂诱蛾,越冬代单盆累计蛾量达300头时,棉仓和棉秸堆第一次喷药,此后每七天一次,直至一代蛾羽化末期;第二代150、400、700头;第三代100、250、400头,分别施药,可以提高防效,节约农药。
The occurrence of cotton bollworm (Gossypidae) was predicted by using Gossyplure sex attractant in the cotton area of Xiaoshan County from 1975 to 1980 and compared with the conventional method. The first generation of red bollworm 80% of the hair moths, indoor moths peak than the gaussian moths peak 3 to 10 days earlier, an average of 6.8 days. Compared with 100 cotton spikes in cotton field, the difference between indoor moth and egg peaks was 8-17 days with an average of 13.7 days. The difference between Gossypy moth and egg peak was 1 ~ 13 days with an average of 6.8 days. Gaussian moth prediction is more reliable. The second generation of insect pest forecast 50% moth peak and Gaussian moth peak difference of 2 to 6 days, an average of 4.2 days. Insect flower forecast moth peak and egg peak difference of 1 to 6 days, an average of 2 days; Gaussian cocoon peak and egg peak difference of 3 to 7 days, an average of 4.5 days. Both methods of prediction are reliable. The third generation of the second generation to the third generation of 30-day interval prediction and Gaussian trap moth peak difference of 1 to 15 days, an average of 7.3 days. The prediction of period is different from that of the egg peak by 2 ~ 16 days with an average of 6.6 days. The difference between the peak of Gaussian and the peak of the egg peak is 2 ~ 8 days with an average of 4.7 days. Gaussian moths are more reliable than the long-term prediction. The correlation coefficients of the second-generation moths (7 / 21-8 / 20) and the bruising rate of cyanobacteria in six years were r 0.1 (0.729 0.75) and the rainfall was between 7/21 and 8/15 The rate of correlation coefficient r_ (0.05) = 0.811 <1-0.8561, reaching a significant level. According to the above relationship, the binary regression prediction formula is: Y = 46.843 + 0.0176X_1-0.1235X_2. x_1 for the second generation of moths, x_2 for rainfall, y is the rate of bruises. When y> 50 is the year of re-emission, y <35% is the light-weight year and y is between 35% and 50% of the year of occurrence. The theoretical value of the hazard rate of each year is basically consistent with the measured value. Application of Gaussian sex attractant moths, overwintering generation single moth cumulative amount of moths reached 300, the cotton silo and cotton heap for the first time, then every seven days until the end of a generation of moth eclosion; the second generation of 150,400, 700; the third generation 100,250,400 head, respectively, spraying, can improve control efficiency, saving pesticides.