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Every civilization has its rise and fall. But no culture has fallen quite like the Maya Empire, seemingly swallowed by the jungle after centuries of urban, cultural, intellectual, and agricultural evolution.
What went wrong? The latest discoveries point not to a massive eruption[爆发], quake, or plague[瘟疫] but rather to climate change. And faced with the fallout[附带结果], one expert says, the Maya may have packed up and gone to the beach.
But first came the boom[繁荣] years, roughly A.D. 300 to 660. At the beginning of the so-called Classic Maya period, some 60 Maya cities—each home to between 60,000 and 70,000 people—sprang up[萌芽，出现] across much of modern-day Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula[半岛].
Surrounded by pyramids, plazas, ball courts[球场], and government buildings, the urban Maya discussed philosophy, developed an accurate solar-year calendar, and relished[品味] the world’s first hot chocolate.
Farmers, too, were riding high, turning hillsides into terraced[使成梯形地] fields to feed the growing population.
Then came the bust[萧条时期], a decline[衰落] that lasted at least two centuries. By 1100 the residents[居民] of once thriving[繁荣的] Maya cities seem to have just packed up and left. But where did they go, and why?
In the 19th century, when explorers began discovering the ruins of “lost cities,” people imagined an large volcanic eruption or earthquake or superstorm—or maybe a pandemic[流行性疾病].
But today, scientists generally agree that the Maya collapse[崩溃] has many roots—overpopulation, warfare, famine[饥荒], drought[干旱]. At the moment, the hottest discussion centers on climate change, perhaps of the Maya’s own doing.
Flowering[发展，兴旺] with the Rain
The latest Maya climate-change study, published in the journal Science, analyzes[分析] a Belizean cavern’s[洞窟] stalagmites[石笋] to link climate swings[摆动] to both the rise and fall of the empire.
Formed by water and minerals dripping from above, stalagmites grow quicker in rainier years, giving scientists a reliable[可信赖的] record of historical precipitation[沉淀；降雨量] trends.
Among the trends revealed by the Belizean stalagmites: “The early Classic Maya period was unusually wet, wetter than the previous thousand years,” according to study leader Douglas Kennett, an environmental anthropologist[人类学家] at Pennsylvania State University. “During this time, the population proliferated[激增],” aided by a growth in agriculture.
During the wettest decades, from 440 to 660, cities grew very quickly. All the hallmarks[标记，特点] of Maya civilization—clever political systems, monumental[纪念碑的] architecture[建筑], complex religion—came into full flower during this era. Climate Shift Causes Conflict[冲突]
But the 200-year-long wet spell[一段时间] turned out to be a one-off. When the climate pendulum[钟摆] swung back, hard times followed.
“Mayan systems were founded on those [high] rainfall patterns, ” Kennett said. “They could not support themselves when patterns changed.”
The following centuries, from about 660 to 1000, were characterized by repeated and, at times extreme, drought. Agriculture declined and social conflict rose, Kennet says.
The Maya religious and political system was based on the belief that rulers were in direct communication[交流] with the gods. When these connections failed to produce rainfall and good harvests, tensions likely developed.
But times would get even harder.
The stalagmite record suggests that between 1020 and 1100, the region suffered its longest dry spell of the last 2,000 years. With it, the study suggests, came Maya crop failure, famine, mass migration[移民], and death.
By the time Spanish conquistadors注 arrived in the 16th century, inland Maya populations had decreased by 90 percent, and urban centers had been largely abandoned[放弃]. Farms had become overgrown[簇叶丛生的] and cities reclaimed[收回] by forest.
A Cautionary[警戒的] Tale?
The collapse, though, wasn’t exactly all natural. To some extent[某种程度上], the Maya may have designed their own decline.
“There were tens of millions of people in the area, and they were building cities and farms at the expense of[在损害……的情况下] the forest,” climate scientist Benjamin I. Cook said.
注：尤指16世纪入侵墨西哥、中美洲或秘鲁印第安的西班牙士兵。
Widespread deforestation[采伐森林] reduced the flow of moisture from the ground to the atmosphere[大气], interrupting the natural rain cycle and in turn reducing precipitation, says Cook, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory[观测所].
This could be a cautionary tale for modern society, according to Cook. Today, as more and more forestland is turned into farms and cities, and as global temperatures continue to rise, we may risk the same fate that befell the Maya, he says.
But, according to Arizona State University professor of environment and society B.L. Turner, “the Mayan situation is not applicable[可适用的] today—our society is just so different now.”
In a study published in last August by the journal Proceedings[（科学文献）汇编] of the National Academy of Sciences, Turner attempts to correct some common misconceptions, beginning with the idea that Maya civilization vanished[消失] after the conquistadores arrived. “It didn’t cease[停止] to exist; there are still today Mayan people in the area. The culture, the traditions have been maintained,” he said. But the cities, historically, have not—and that’s odd.
Throughout global history, he said, “rarely can you find a large population that just left and never came back,” Turner said.
Turner’s study concludes that the natural environment recovered rather quickly after the dry centuries. Why, then, didn’t the Maya reclaim their cities?
Turner points to the coasts. Fleeing[逃走] starving, warring inland cities, many Maya went for the shore. Trade also shifted, from overland[陆路的] paths to coastal routes, he suggests.
With life relatively[相对地] comfortable on the coast, the inland Mayan cities may have simply been forgotten, Turner says. No terrible earthquake, no plague, no curse, but rather a gradual migration to the beach, where life was a bit more comfortable.
That is, until the Spanish arrived.
每个文明都有自己的兴衰，但没有哪个文明像玛雅帝国一样，在经过数百年的城市、文化、智慧和农业发展之后，竟然像被丛林吞没一样消失得无影无踪。
问题出在哪里？最新的发现显示，原因不是大型的火山爆发、地震或瘟疫，而是气候变化。一位专家称，面对气候变化的影响，玛雅人可能收拾行装，向海滩进发。
让我们先回到大约公元300至660年，也就是玛雅文明的繁荣时期。在所谓的“古典期”之初，该地区兴起了大约六十座玛雅城市，散布于今天的危地马拉、伯利兹以及墨西哥的尤卡坦半岛等地，每座城市约有六至七万人口。
这些玛雅城市周围环绕着金字塔、广场、球场和政府大楼；城里的玛雅人探讨着哲学，发明了精确的太阳历，品尝着世界上最早的热巧克力。
农民也向高处迁移，把山坡开垦成梯田，以养活不断增长的人口。
随后玛雅文明走向萧条，在至少两个世纪的时间里持续衰退。到了1100年，一度繁华的玛雅城市中的居民似乎全都卷起铺盖，弃城而去。他们去了哪里呢？又是出于什么原因？
19世纪，当探险家开始探索这些“失落之城”的遗址时，人们设想这里可能发生过一场大型的火山爆发、地震、超级风暴，或者是瘟疫。
然而今天，科学家们普遍同意玛雅文明的衰落有多方面的原因，比如人口过多、战争、饥荒和干旱等等。目前最热门的讨论焦点是气候变化，而这或许是玛雅人咎由自取的结果。
与雨水共繁荣
发表在《科学》期刊上有关玛雅气候变化的最新研究对伯利兹一处洞穴的石笋进行了分析，从而把气候变化与玛雅帝国的兴衰联系在了一起。
石笋由洞穴顶部滴落的水和矿物质形成。在多雨的年份，石笋生长的速度会更快。这给科学家提供了一份关于沉淀物变化趋势的可靠历史记录。
在伯利兹石笋透露出来的变化趋势当中，“古典玛雅时期的早期，气候异常潮湿，比那以前的一千年更加潮湿。”该研究负责人——（美国）宾夕法尼亚州立大学环境人类学家道格拉斯·肯尼特说，得益于农业的增长，“在这段时间内，人口大量繁殖”。
公元440年至660年这最潮湿的几十年间，城市以极快的速度发展。玛雅文明的一切标志，如巧妙的政治制度、纪念碑般的建筑和复杂的宗教等，都在这个时期走向全面繁荣。
气候变化引发冲突
然而，持续200年的雨水期此后一去不返。当气候的钟摆往回摆动，艰难的日子也随之而至。
“玛雅的各种制度都是以（高）降雨量模式为基础建立的，”肯尼特说。“当这种模式发生改变，他们便无法自给自足。”
肯尼特说，在接下来从约公元660年至1000年的几百年间，玛雅文明经历了反复的干旱，有时甚至是极度干旱。农业衰退，社会矛盾上升。
玛雅人相信统治者能直接与神明沟通，这也是玛雅宗教和政治制度的根基。当这种联系无法带来降雨和丰收，就可能引发冲突。
然而，前面的光景更加艰难。
石笋记录表明，从公元1 0 2 0年到1100年，该地区遭遇了过去2 0 0 0年来持续时间最长的旱灾。研究显示，这场旱灾导致玛雅粮食歉收，引发饥荒、大迁徙和死亡。
到16世纪西班牙征服者到达这里时，内陆的玛雅人口已经减少了90%，大部分城市中心已被遗弃。农田杂草丛生，城市重新被森林占领。
警世寓言？
不过，玛雅文明的衰败并不能完全归咎于自然原因。在一定程度上，玛雅人的衰败可能是咎由自取。
气候学家本杰明·I·库克说：“该地区有数以千万计的人口，他们为了建造城市和农场不惜砍伐森林。”
库克任职于美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的戈达德太空研究所和拉蒙特-多哈提地球观测站。他说，大面积的森林砍伐令从地面升上大气的水分减少，阻断了自然降水循环，从而令降雨量减少。
根据库克的说法，这或许可以作为现代社会的警世寓言。如今，越来越多的林地被改造成农场和城市，而随着全球气温的不断上升，我们可能面临着曾经降临到玛雅人身上的同样命运。
不过，（美国）亚利桑那州立大学环境与社会教授B·L·特纳说：“玛雅的情况并不适用于今天——我们现今的社会与他们已经大为不同了。”
海岸的魅力
在其去年8月发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》的一份研究报告中，特纳试图纠正一些常见的误解。首先一个误解，就是认为玛雅文明是在西班牙征服者到达之后消失的。
“玛雅文明并没有消失，今天在这个地区依然有玛雅人，他们的文化和传统保留了下来，”他说。然而历史上的玛雅城市却没有保存下来，这一点很不寻常。
他说，纵观全球历史，“你很难找到大量人口一去不返的例子”。
特纳的研究结论认为，在经历数百年的干旱之后，自然环境迅速恢复。那么玛雅人为什么没有夺回他们的城市呢？
特纳转向了海岸。许多玛雅人从被饥饿与战争蹂躏的内陆城市逃往沿海地区。他说，玛雅人所从事的贸易也发生了变化，从陆路变成了海路。
特纳认为，玛雅人生活在相对舒适的海岸，可能就把内陆的城市给忘了。玛雅城市之所以被遗弃，既不是因为可怕的地震，也不是因为瘟疫或者诅咒，而是因为他们逐步迁徙到了生活更为舒适的海滩。
——直到西班牙人的到来。
What went wrong? The latest discoveries point not to a massive eruption[爆发], quake, or plague[瘟疫] but rather to climate change. And faced with the fallout[附带结果], one expert says, the Maya may have packed up and gone to the beach.
But first came the boom[繁荣] years, roughly A.D. 300 to 660. At the beginning of the so-called Classic Maya period, some 60 Maya cities—each home to between 60,000 and 70,000 people—sprang up[萌芽，出现] across much of modern-day Guatemala, Belize, and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula[半岛].
Surrounded by pyramids, plazas, ball courts[球场], and government buildings, the urban Maya discussed philosophy, developed an accurate solar-year calendar, and relished[品味] the world’s first hot chocolate.
Farmers, too, were riding high, turning hillsides into terraced[使成梯形地] fields to feed the growing population.
Then came the bust[萧条时期], a decline[衰落] that lasted at least two centuries. By 1100 the residents[居民] of once thriving[繁荣的] Maya cities seem to have just packed up and left. But where did they go, and why?
In the 19th century, when explorers began discovering the ruins of “lost cities,” people imagined an large volcanic eruption or earthquake or superstorm—or maybe a pandemic[流行性疾病].
But today, scientists generally agree that the Maya collapse[崩溃] has many roots—overpopulation, warfare, famine[饥荒], drought[干旱]. At the moment, the hottest discussion centers on climate change, perhaps of the Maya’s own doing.
Flowering[发展，兴旺] with the Rain
The latest Maya climate-change study, published in the journal Science, analyzes[分析] a Belizean cavern’s[洞窟] stalagmites[石笋] to link climate swings[摆动] to both the rise and fall of the empire.
Formed by water and minerals dripping from above, stalagmites grow quicker in rainier years, giving scientists a reliable[可信赖的] record of historical precipitation[沉淀；降雨量] trends.
Among the trends revealed by the Belizean stalagmites: “The early Classic Maya period was unusually wet, wetter than the previous thousand years,” according to study leader Douglas Kennett, an environmental anthropologist[人类学家] at Pennsylvania State University. “During this time, the population proliferated[激增],” aided by a growth in agriculture.
During the wettest decades, from 440 to 660, cities grew very quickly. All the hallmarks[标记，特点] of Maya civilization—clever political systems, monumental[纪念碑的] architecture[建筑], complex religion—came into full flower during this era. Climate Shift Causes Conflict[冲突]
But the 200-year-long wet spell[一段时间] turned out to be a one-off. When the climate pendulum[钟摆] swung back, hard times followed.
“Mayan systems were founded on those [high] rainfall patterns, ” Kennett said. “They could not support themselves when patterns changed.”
The following centuries, from about 660 to 1000, were characterized by repeated and, at times extreme, drought. Agriculture declined and social conflict rose, Kennet says.
The Maya religious and political system was based on the belief that rulers were in direct communication[交流] with the gods. When these connections failed to produce rainfall and good harvests, tensions likely developed.
But times would get even harder.
The stalagmite record suggests that between 1020 and 1100, the region suffered its longest dry spell of the last 2,000 years. With it, the study suggests, came Maya crop failure, famine, mass migration[移民], and death.
By the time Spanish conquistadors注 arrived in the 16th century, inland Maya populations had decreased by 90 percent, and urban centers had been largely abandoned[放弃]. Farms had become overgrown[簇叶丛生的] and cities reclaimed[收回] by forest.
A Cautionary[警戒的] Tale?
The collapse, though, wasn’t exactly all natural. To some extent[某种程度上], the Maya may have designed their own decline.
“There were tens of millions of people in the area, and they were building cities and farms at the expense of[在损害……的情况下] the forest,” climate scientist Benjamin I. Cook said.
注：尤指16世纪入侵墨西哥、中美洲或秘鲁印第安的西班牙士兵。
Widespread deforestation[采伐森林] reduced the flow of moisture from the ground to the atmosphere[大气], interrupting the natural rain cycle and in turn reducing precipitation, says Cook, of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies and the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory[观测所].
This could be a cautionary tale for modern society, according to Cook. Today, as more and more forestland is turned into farms and cities, and as global temperatures continue to rise, we may risk the same fate that befell the Maya, he says.
But, according to Arizona State University professor of environment and society B.L. Turner, “the Mayan situation is not applicable[可适用的] today—our society is just so different now.”
In a study published in last August by the journal Proceedings[（科学文献）汇编] of the National Academy of Sciences, Turner attempts to correct some common misconceptions, beginning with the idea that Maya civilization vanished[消失] after the conquistadores arrived. “It didn’t cease[停止] to exist; there are still today Mayan people in the area. The culture, the traditions have been maintained,” he said. But the cities, historically, have not—and that’s odd.
Throughout global history, he said, “rarely can you find a large population that just left and never came back,” Turner said.
Turner’s study concludes that the natural environment recovered rather quickly after the dry centuries. Why, then, didn’t the Maya reclaim their cities?
Turner points to the coasts. Fleeing[逃走] starving, warring inland cities, many Maya went for the shore. Trade also shifted, from overland[陆路的] paths to coastal routes, he suggests.
With life relatively[相对地] comfortable on the coast, the inland Mayan cities may have simply been forgotten, Turner says. No terrible earthquake, no plague, no curse, but rather a gradual migration to the beach, where life was a bit more comfortable.
That is, until the Spanish arrived.
每个文明都有自己的兴衰，但没有哪个文明像玛雅帝国一样，在经过数百年的城市、文化、智慧和农业发展之后，竟然像被丛林吞没一样消失得无影无踪。
问题出在哪里？最新的发现显示，原因不是大型的火山爆发、地震或瘟疫，而是气候变化。一位专家称，面对气候变化的影响，玛雅人可能收拾行装，向海滩进发。
让我们先回到大约公元300至660年，也就是玛雅文明的繁荣时期。在所谓的“古典期”之初，该地区兴起了大约六十座玛雅城市，散布于今天的危地马拉、伯利兹以及墨西哥的尤卡坦半岛等地，每座城市约有六至七万人口。
这些玛雅城市周围环绕着金字塔、广场、球场和政府大楼；城里的玛雅人探讨着哲学，发明了精确的太阳历，品尝着世界上最早的热巧克力。
农民也向高处迁移，把山坡开垦成梯田，以养活不断增长的人口。
随后玛雅文明走向萧条，在至少两个世纪的时间里持续衰退。到了1100年，一度繁华的玛雅城市中的居民似乎全都卷起铺盖，弃城而去。他们去了哪里呢？又是出于什么原因？
19世纪，当探险家开始探索这些“失落之城”的遗址时，人们设想这里可能发生过一场大型的火山爆发、地震、超级风暴，或者是瘟疫。
然而今天，科学家们普遍同意玛雅文明的衰落有多方面的原因，比如人口过多、战争、饥荒和干旱等等。目前最热门的讨论焦点是气候变化，而这或许是玛雅人咎由自取的结果。
与雨水共繁荣
发表在《科学》期刊上有关玛雅气候变化的最新研究对伯利兹一处洞穴的石笋进行了分析，从而把气候变化与玛雅帝国的兴衰联系在了一起。
石笋由洞穴顶部滴落的水和矿物质形成。在多雨的年份，石笋生长的速度会更快。这给科学家提供了一份关于沉淀物变化趋势的可靠历史记录。
在伯利兹石笋透露出来的变化趋势当中，“古典玛雅时期的早期，气候异常潮湿，比那以前的一千年更加潮湿。”该研究负责人——（美国）宾夕法尼亚州立大学环境人类学家道格拉斯·肯尼特说，得益于农业的增长，“在这段时间内，人口大量繁殖”。
公元440年至660年这最潮湿的几十年间，城市以极快的速度发展。玛雅文明的一切标志，如巧妙的政治制度、纪念碑般的建筑和复杂的宗教等，都在这个时期走向全面繁荣。
气候变化引发冲突
然而，持续200年的雨水期此后一去不返。当气候的钟摆往回摆动，艰难的日子也随之而至。
“玛雅的各种制度都是以（高）降雨量模式为基础建立的，”肯尼特说。“当这种模式发生改变，他们便无法自给自足。”
肯尼特说，在接下来从约公元660年至1000年的几百年间，玛雅文明经历了反复的干旱，有时甚至是极度干旱。农业衰退，社会矛盾上升。
玛雅人相信统治者能直接与神明沟通，这也是玛雅宗教和政治制度的根基。当这种联系无法带来降雨和丰收，就可能引发冲突。
然而，前面的光景更加艰难。
石笋记录表明，从公元1 0 2 0年到1100年，该地区遭遇了过去2 0 0 0年来持续时间最长的旱灾。研究显示，这场旱灾导致玛雅粮食歉收，引发饥荒、大迁徙和死亡。
到16世纪西班牙征服者到达这里时，内陆的玛雅人口已经减少了90%，大部分城市中心已被遗弃。农田杂草丛生，城市重新被森林占领。
警世寓言？
不过，玛雅文明的衰败并不能完全归咎于自然原因。在一定程度上，玛雅人的衰败可能是咎由自取。
气候学家本杰明·I·库克说：“该地区有数以千万计的人口，他们为了建造城市和农场不惜砍伐森林。”
库克任职于美国国家航空航天局（NASA）的戈达德太空研究所和拉蒙特-多哈提地球观测站。他说，大面积的森林砍伐令从地面升上大气的水分减少，阻断了自然降水循环，从而令降雨量减少。
根据库克的说法，这或许可以作为现代社会的警世寓言。如今，越来越多的林地被改造成农场和城市，而随着全球气温的不断上升，我们可能面临着曾经降临到玛雅人身上的同样命运。
不过，（美国）亚利桑那州立大学环境与社会教授B·L·特纳说：“玛雅的情况并不适用于今天——我们现今的社会与他们已经大为不同了。”
海岸的魅力
在其去年8月发表在《美国国家科学院院刊》的一份研究报告中，特纳试图纠正一些常见的误解。首先一个误解，就是认为玛雅文明是在西班牙征服者到达之后消失的。
“玛雅文明并没有消失，今天在这个地区依然有玛雅人，他们的文化和传统保留了下来，”他说。然而历史上的玛雅城市却没有保存下来，这一点很不寻常。
他说，纵观全球历史，“你很难找到大量人口一去不返的例子”。
特纳的研究结论认为，在经历数百年的干旱之后，自然环境迅速恢复。那么玛雅人为什么没有夺回他们的城市呢？
特纳转向了海岸。许多玛雅人从被饥饿与战争蹂躏的内陆城市逃往沿海地区。他说，玛雅人所从事的贸易也发生了变化，从陆路变成了海路。
特纳认为，玛雅人生活在相对舒适的海岸，可能就把内陆的城市给忘了。玛雅城市之所以被遗弃，既不是因为可怕的地震，也不是因为瘟疫或者诅咒，而是因为他们逐步迁徙到了生活更为舒适的海滩。
——直到西班牙人的到来。