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本研究旨在评价泉州市传染病自动预警系统(预警系统)的运行效果,为推进其应用提供依据。以泉州市2008年4月21日至2012年12月31日预警系统中的预警信号、现场调查结果和突发公共卫生事件报告系统报告结果作为研究对象,以灵敏度和阳性预测值评价预警系统的有效性。结果显示,预警系统共发出预警信号6 286条,涉及24种传染病,平均每县每天预警0.3次。响应信号6 105条,响应率为97.12%,预警信号经过初步核实后,被判断为疑似事件111条(1.81%),经过现场调查共确认暴发25起;预警系统的灵敏度为28.74%,阳性预测值为22.52%。由此可见,预警系统可初步实现传染病暴发的早期自动预警,但预警效率仍须提高。通过合理设置阈值,提高暴发探测来源数据的质量,可提高预警效率。
The purpose of this study is to evaluate the operational effectiveness of the automatic early warning system (early warning system) for infectious diseases in Quanzhou and provide the basis for its application. Based on the early warning signals, the field survey results and the report of public health emergencies reporting system from April 21, 2008 to December 31, 2012 in Quanzhou City as the research object, the sensitivity and positive predictive value were used to evaluate the early warning system Effectiveness. The results showed that the warning system issued 6 286 warning signals in total, involving 24 kinds of infectious diseases, with an average of 0.3 times per day for each county. The response rate was 97.12%. Sixty-one (1.81%) of the suspected events were identified as pre-warning signals after the preliminary verification. After the field survey, 25 outbreaks were confirmed. The sensitivity of the early-warning system was 28.74%. The positive predictive value The value is 22.52%. It can be seen from this that the early warning system can initially realize the early automatic warning of an outbreak of an infectious disease, but the warning efficiency still needs to be improved. By setting reasonable thresholds and improving the quality of data from outbreak detection, the efficiency of early warning can be improved.