逐层增枝结构行为检验建模法——以农户沼气工程为例

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农村小型循环沼气工程是中国“十三五农业循环沼气工程”的3项工程建设之一,但是,现存在户用沼气池闲置率高的严重问题,需建立可靠性高的仿真模型,仿真提高户用沼气池使用率的对策效应。而如何实现还原论与整体论相结合的原则建立系统动力学仿真模型,如何实现更有效的检验方法提高模型的可靠性又是待深入研究的重要问题.针对上类问题,首先,给出子系统仿真定理,结构行为检验的内涵,新建“逐层增枝结构行为检验建模法”的步骤.接着,根据新建模法,建立农村小型循环沼气工程系统普遍存在的户数-原料-沼气-沼液种植入树T_1(t)-T_7(t)七棵前期流率基本入树,分3次进行结构行为检验,构建可靠性高的第一部分前期流率基本入树模型,通过参数组合仿真此第一部分入树模型,揭示出工程未来发展存在的进度慢、气待开发增、种下降3大问题.然后,针对此3大问题,提出新增户沼气服务技工人员和建立技术人员工资及服务费保障机制2条新措施,针对新措施又新建立2棵入树,并新增加后2棵入树对前7棵入树的流率的3条技工影响反馈枝,构成户-原-沼-种-技-投入树T_1(t)-T_9(t)九棵流率基本入树模型.通过仿真九入树模型,揭示新措施实施对工程未来解除问题的好效果。论证了2个新措施的正确性,建立了“通过政府、高校研究部门、服务技术员、企业、农户5个子系目标责任的实现,实现户用沼气池工程发展的总目标”的管理原理.研究新建立了一种通过增枝的提高模型可靠性、增强操作性、降低建模难度的建模法. Small-scale rural biogas projects are one of three projects under China’s “Thirteen Five-Year Agricultural Biogas Recycling Project”. However, the existing serious problems of high idle rate of biogas digesters require the establishment of a highly reliable simulation model, Countermeasure Effect of Simulation on Increasing the Utilization Rate of Household Biogas Digesters. How to establish the system dynamic simulation model based on the principle of combination of reductionism and holism, how to improve the reliability of the model and how to achieve a more effective test is an important issue to be studied further.For the class of problems, firstly, System simulation theorem, the connotation of structural behavior test, and the new step of building a new model of “building behavior test by layer by layer structure.” Then, according to the new modeling method, the number of households in rural small-scale circulating biogas system is ubiquitous - The biogas-biogas slurry plantation tree T_1 (t) -T_7 (t) at the early flow rate of seven trees into the tree, the structural behavior test was divided into three times to build a high reliability of the first part of the flow rate of the basic flow into the tree model, through The first part of the parameter combination simulation models the tree, revealing the progress of the future development of the project is slow, the gas to be developed, the decline of three major issues.Then, for these three major issues, proposed biogas service mechanic and the establishment of new technology Staff salaries and service fee protection mechanism 2 new measures, new measures for the new measures to establish two new trees, and add the last 2 into the tree on the first 7 into the tree flow rate of three mechanics feedback feedback branches, constitute a household - the original - Marsh - species - technology - Nine tree flow rate models T_1 (t) -T_9 (t) were put into the tree model, and the good effect of the new measures on the future release of the project was revealed by simulating the nine-in-tree model. Demonstrated the correctness of the two new measures and established the management principle of “achieving the target responsibility of 5 sub-departments through government, university research departments, service technicians, enterprises and farmers and realizing the goal of household digester engineering development” The research establishes a new modeling method that increases the reliability of the model, enhance the operability and reduce the difficulty of modeling by increasing the number of branches.
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