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生态承载力是区域可持续发展的重要衡量标准,研究港口生态承载力状况并预测其演变趋势有利于港口生态可持续发展。针对现有港口生态承载力研究中生态过程机制、时间动态性考虑不足等问题,引入系统动力学理论,结合港口生态系统的特点,从社会经济、资源、环境3个方面进行因果反馈分析,在此基础上构建港口生态承载力的系统动力学模型。从港口生态供需关系的角度出发,引入生态承载力供需平衡指数,对港口生态承载力状况进行评价。以大连某港区为例,以GDP增长率、环保投资比重、单位吞吐量综合能耗、单位吞吐量水资源消耗量、单位吞吐量COD产生量、单位吞吐量SO_2产生量、单位吞吐量固废产生量作为调控变量,动态仿真自然发展模式、经济快速增长模式、协调发展模式和资源环境保护模式4种港口发展模式下2015—2030年港口生态承载力演变趋势。结果表明:能源消耗是制约该港区生态承载力改善的重要瓶颈,优化港口用能结构、加强港口能源管理有助于改善港口生态承载力;经济资源环境协调发展模式是实现港口生态系统可持续发展的最优模式。
Ecological carrying capacity is an important measure of regional sustainable development. Studying the status of the ecological carrying capacity of the port and predicting the evolution trend of the port is conducive to the ecological sustainable development of the port. Aiming at the problems such as the ecological process mechanism and the lack of time dynamic consideration in the existing research on the ecological carrying capacity of ports, this paper introduces the theory of system dynamics and analyzes the characteristics of the port ecosystem from the aspects of social economy, resources and environment. Based on this, a systematic dynamic model of harbor ecological carrying capacity is constructed. From the perspective of the ecological supply and demand of the port, this paper introduces the balance of supply and demand balance of ecological carrying capacity and evaluates the ecological carrying capacity of the port. Taking Dalian Port as an example, taking GDP growth rate, investment in environmental protection, comprehensive energy consumption per unit throughput, water consumption per unit throughput, COD production per unit throughput, SO2 production per unit throughput, unit throughput Waste generation as the evolutionary trend of the port’s ecological carrying capacity from 2015 to 2030 under the four port development modes of control variables, dynamic simulation of natural development mode, rapid economic growth mode, coordinated development mode and resource and environmental protection mode. The results show that: energy consumption is an important bottleneck restricting the improvement of ecological carrying capacity of the port area. Optimizing the structure of port energy consumption and strengthening port energy management will help improve the port’s ecological carrying capacity. The coordinated development mode of economic resources and environment is to realize the sustainable development of port ecosystem The optimal model of development.