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为了充分利用河北低平原区气候资源,并制定合理的小麦栽培管理方案提供依据,采用1976-2006年衡水市冬小麦平均产量以及衡水市所辖4县(市、区)气象资料,对冬小麦产量与各气象因子进行了相关和通径分析。结果表明,气象因子与小麦产量密切相关。在与小麦产量相关的35个气象因子中,有12个因子的相关系数达到了显著或极显著水平,其中灌浆期降水与冬小麦产量呈极显著相关,且直接通径系数最高,对小麦产量贡献率最大;其次是拔节期降水量和返青期降水量;4、5月份的蒸发量与冬小麦产量密切相关,分别接近显著和达到极显著水平,它们对小麦产量形成起较大的负向作用;小麦越冬期间的气温也是不可忽视的气象因素。因此,在制定小麦生产管理计划时,应将以上因素作为考虑的重点,科学设置小麦生产管理规划,及时采取相应措施,提高小麦对自然资源的利用效率。
In order to make full use of the climatic resources in low plains of Hebei and to provide a reasonable plan of wheat cultivation and management, the author used the average output of winter wheat in Hengshui City from 1976 to 2006 and the meteorological data of 4 counties (cities and districts) in Hengshui City, The meteorological factors were related and path analysis. The results show that the meteorological factors are closely related to the wheat yield. Among the 35 meteorological factors related to wheat yield, the correlation coefficients of 12 factors reached significant or extremely significant levels, of which precipitation in filling stage was significantly correlated with winter wheat yield, and the direct path coefficient was the highest, contributing to the wheat yield Followed by jointing stage precipitation and greening stage precipitation. The evaporation in April and May was closely related to the winter wheat yield, which were close to significant and significant levels respectively, which had a significant negative effect on wheat yield formation. The temperature during winter wheat is also a meteorological factor that can not be ignored. Therefore, when formulating the wheat production management plan, the above factors should be taken as the focus of consideration and the wheat production management plan should be set up scientifically and appropriate measures should be taken in time to improve the utilization efficiency of wheat to natural resources.