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通过借鉴Pissarides匹配模型的思想,构建包含净出口额与就业等因素在内的模型框架,在此基础上利用2004~2008年中国行业面板数据,实证分析外贸顺差对就业的影响机制与程度。结果表明:已经拥有庞大贸易顺差的基础上,顺差的进一步增加不能提高就业水平,反而会造成就业人数的下降。本文研究表明,应该通过制定相应的进口支持政策,保障出口与进口的协调发展,减少顺差来优化国内经济发展结构,促进国内经济发展质量提升和就业水平提高。
By drawing on the idea of Pissarides matching model, this paper constructs a model framework including net exports and employment. Based on this, we use the panel data of China’s industries from 2004 to 2008 to analyze the mechanism and extent of the impact of the trade surplus on employment. The result shows that on the basis of having a huge trade surplus, the further increase of the surplus will not raise the level of employment, on the contrary, it will result in the decrease of employment. This study shows that we should optimize the domestic economic development and improve the level of employment by formulating corresponding import support policies, ensuring the coordinated development of exports and imports, reducing the surplus to optimize the domestic economic development structure.