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2011年初以来的房地产调控,通过限贷、限购,迫使开发企业主动降价以缓解现金压力,同时通过保障房和体制建设实现房地产长期稳定发展。调控是利益重新分配的反复博弈过程。从博弈论视角看,中央政府、地方政府、开发企业及购房个体具有不同的行为集合与支付函数。本文认为,中央政府的房地产调控存在常态化趋势,而随着博弈的深入,各开发企业之间的博弈将经历不同的阶段,体现为不同的博弈型态,最终是否走快速周转策略、走刚需路线,将成为开发企业生存与发展的关键。
Real estate regulation and control since the beginning of 2011, through the limit loans, purchase restrictions, forcing development companies to reduce prices to ease the cash pressure, at the same time through the protection of housing and institutional building real estate long-term and stable development. Regulation is the game of repeated game of redistribution of interests. From the perspective of game theory, the central government, local governments, development companies and individual purchasers have different sets of behaviors and payment functions. This paper argues that the regulation of the real estate in the central government has a tendency of normalization. With the deepening of the game, the game among the various development enterprises will go through different stages, manifest themselves in different game patterns, whether to go for a quick turnaround strategy, Route, will become the key to the survival and development of enterprises.