一、对当前经济形势的总体判断开始于1993年7月的经济紧缩,到目前基本告一段落.尽管政府管理层特别是中央银行,在货市政策上没有放弃“适度从紧” 的提法,但是,实际操作已经逐步转向“适度放松”.表现在:一是5月1日和8月23日的两次减息,二是3月以来加快企业发行和上市股票的步伐,三是最近决定增加信贷规模.这一连串的信息表明.前3年“以冷却经济、紧缩投资、降低通胀为主”的政策导向,正在向“以搞活市场、加快企业发展为主”的政策导向转换.同时也表明,改革时期第3经济周期的下降阶段,正在向第4经济周期的上升阶段转变.这是当前经济形势的基本特征,也是把握未来经济走向的基本出发点.二、国民经济发展的最新动态1、投资、销售转好,生产有望回升到今年8月底,继1994年下半年以来全国工业生产滑坡的形势并未改变.1～8月为12107亿元,增长12.9%.8月份,工业完成增加值1503亿元,增长 First, the overall judgment on the current economic situation began with the economic tightening in July 1993 and has basically come to an end so far. Although the management of the government, especially the central bank, has not given up the term “moderately tight” in the policy of the goods market, However, the actual operation has gradually shifted to “modest relaxation.” The performance is reflected in the following two cuts in interest rates on May 1 and August 23 and the acceleration of the issuance and listing of stocks by the public since March. The third is the recent decision This series of information shows that the policy orientation of “cooling the economy, tightening investment and reducing inflation” in the first three years is shifting toward a policy of “invigorating the market and accelerating the development of enterprises”, and at the same time This shows that the third phase of the economic cycle in the reform period is in the downward phase and is changing to the fourth phase in the economic cycle, which is the basic feature of the current economic situation and the basic starting point for grasping the future economic trend. , Investment and sales are turning for the better and production is expected to rebound to the end of August this year. Since the second half of 1994, the situation of the landslide of industrial production in China has not changed. From January to August, it was 1,210.7 billion yuan, up 12.9% In August, the added value of industry was 150.3 billion yuan, up