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我国经济增长、信贷扩张是经常账户顺差的Granger原因,但经常账户不是经济增长和信贷扩张的Granger原因。货币分析法较好地解释了我国经济高增长与国际收支顺差并存的现象。我国国际收支顺差主要是由于经济增长带来货币需求大增,超过了货币供给所致。经济增长通过资产需求、“两部门问题”以及人民币升值预期等渠道导致货币需求的上升,因此扩大国内信贷可能会导致国际收支顺差总量的下降;人民币升值并不能减少国际收支顺差,而应该保持基本稳定。
China’s economic growth and credit expansion are Granger causes of the current account surplus, but the current account is not the Granger cause of economic growth and credit expansion. The monetary analysis method better explains the coexistence of the high economic growth in China and the balance of payments surplus. The surplus of the balance of payments in our country is mainly due to the huge increase in demand for money brought by economic growth, which is more than the money supply. Economic growth leads to an increase in demand for money through asset demand, “two-sector problems” and the expected appreciation of the renminbi. Therefore, expanding domestic credit may lead to a decline in the total balance of payments surpluses. Renminbi appreciation does not reduce the balance of payments surplus , But should remain basically stable.