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2008年国际金融危机之后,生产率增长速度急剧放缓成为一个全球现象,生产率增长一直低于对其的预测,可以称之为“生产率之谜”。原因在于,国际金融危机的爆发对资本投资、劳动力市场等产生冲击,加剧了生产率增长放缓的速度,从供给侧的角度来看,人口老龄化、人力资本积累速度放缓、公共投资下降、技术创新速度放缓、技术扩散速度减缓、经济结构服务化等结构性因素会抑制生产率的增长速度。但是,目前而言,技术创新速度加快与技术扩散缓慢的情况并存,现在做出生产率增长停滞的论断尚为时过早。
After the 2008 international financial crisis, the sharp slowdown in productivity growth has become a global phenomenon. Productivity growth has been consistently below its forecast. It can be called “the mystery of productivity.” The reason is that the outbreak of the international financial crisis had an impact on capital investment and the labor market, exacerbating the slowdown in productivity growth. From an supply-side perspective, the aging population, the slowdown of human capital accumulation, the decline of public investment, The slowdown of technological innovation, the slowdown of technology diffusion and the structural factors such as the service-oriented economic structure will restrain the growth rate of productivity. However, at the moment, it is still too early to say that the acceleration of technological innovation and the slow diffusion of technology coexist. It is now too early to say that the stagnation of productivity growth is stagnant.