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根据2011~2013年醴陵市晚稻纹枯病病株率数据田间观测资料,建立了基于气象因子的水稻纹枯病发生等级预报模型,并进行了回代预测检验。结果表明:晚稻日病株率分别与日平均气温、日降水量、日照时数、日平均相对湿度进行统计分析,晚稻纹枯病发生与日平均气温和日降水量存在显著的相关性,得到了纹枯病日病株率预报方程,最终建立了晚稻纹枯病发生等级预测模型。经过回代预测检验,准确率达到95.8%,具有较好的预报效果,能反映病情的发生情况,对纹枯病的防治有一定的指导作用。
According to field observation data of rice plant blight incidence of late rice in Liling City from 2011 to 2013, a forecasting model of rice sheath blight occurrence based on meteorological factors was established and tested by back-generation prediction. The results showed that there was a significant correlation between daily plant disease rate and daily mean temperature, daily precipitation, sunshine hours and daily average relative humidity respectively. There was a significant correlation between occurrence of sheath blight and average daily temperature and daily precipitation, The forecasting equation of plant disease rate on the sheath blight day finally established the prediction model of the occurrence level of sheath blight in rice. After the back-prediction test, the accuracy rate reaches 95.8%, which has a good forecasting effect, which can reflect the occurrence of the disease and has a certain guiding effect on the prevention and control of sheath blight.