本文研究了气象要素和初始病情对早稻纹枯病病情进展的影响，不同氮肥用量、不同早稻品种受纹枯病为害所致的产量损失，以及水稻不同生育阶段的病情与最终病情的关系。结果表明：早稻纹枯病病情进展呈Ｓ型曲线，其进展过程分为三个阶段；水稻不同生育阶段的病情与最终病情是高度正相关，据此建立了不同抗病水平品种的病情预测式；日平均温度和相对湿度及初始病情与流行速率关系最密切，据此建立了病害不同进展阶段的流行速率预测模式；不同品种受纹枯病为害所致损失不同，组建了不同品种的产量损失估计模型，施氮量对同等病情程度的损失影响不显著。 In this paper, the effects of meteorological elements and initial condition on the disease progression of early rice sheath blight were studied. The yield loss caused by different amount of nitrogen fertilizer and different early rice varieties affected by sheath blight and the relationship between the condition and the final condition at different stages of rice growth were studied. The results showed that the disease progression of early rice sheath blight was S-shaped curve, and its progress was divided into three stages; the condition at the different stages of rice growth was highly positively correlated with the final condition, so the disease prediction formula The daily average temperature and relative humidity and the initial disease were most closely related to the epidemic rate. Based on this, the epidemic rate prediction model was established at different stages of the disease. The losses caused by different species of sheath blight were different, and different types of yield loss Estimation model, the amount of nitrogen on the loss of the same degree of illness has no significant effect.