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基于灾害风险分析理论,根据历年气候资料,小麦生长发育、种植面积和产量资料,对江淮地区各县小麦涝渍脆弱性、自然气候风险、灾损风险和抗灾能力等方面进行分析评估,建立了包括涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数、涝渍综合风险评估系数等不同的涝渍风险表征模型,并构建了涝渍综合风险评估系数作为区划指标,对江淮地区小麦涝渍灾害风险进行了空间区域划分。结果表明:涝渍脆弱度、气候风险指数、灾损风险指数和抗灾力系数4个因子的组合,可以较好地反映江淮地区小麦涝渍风险特征;按照高、较高、中和低4个等级对小麦涝渍综合风险进行了区划;安徽省江淮南部为高风险区;沿淮中部以及江淮中部南部、沿洪泽湖区域为涝渍较高风险区;河南省33°N以南区域、以及安徽、江苏省淮北中部区域为涝渍中风险区;33°N以北地区为涝渍低风险区。
Based on the disaster risk analysis theory, we analyzed and evaluated the waterlogging vulnerability, natural climate risk, disaster risk and disaster resistance capability of wheat in all counties in the Jianghuai region based on climatic data, wheat growth and development, planting area and yield data. Including waterlogging vulnerability, climate risk index, disaster risk index, waterlogging integrated risk assessment coefficient and other different waterlogging risk characterization models, and build a comprehensive evaluation index of waterlogging as a zoning index, the waterlogging disaster in the Yangtze River-Huaihe River area Risk has been divided into spatial regions. The results showed that the combination of four factors: waterlogging vulnerability, climate risk index, disaster risk index and disaster resilience index could reflect the characteristics of waterlogging and flood risk in the Jianghuai region. According to the four indicators of high, high, medium and low Level in the southern part of the Jianghuai area is a high-risk area; along the central part of the Huaihe River and in the southern part of the central part of the Jianghuai Central Area, there is a risk zone for waterlogging along the Hongze Lake area; south of 33 ° N in Henan Province, And the central area of Anhui and Jiangsu Province in central Huaibei is the risk area for waterlogging; the area north of 33 ° N is the low-risk area for waterlogging.