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概述了地统计学在昆虫种群时空动态分析中的基本方法,应用该方法分析了江苏省通州市和安徽省凤阳县稻纵卷叶螟23年各世代种群时间格局的结构特征和自相关性,并对历年各世代的种群数量进行了模拟估计。结果表明:种群每世代的累计蛾量和高峰日蛾量在一定世代间隔内均存在着自相关性,当世代间隔超过一定距离时表现为相互独立。两地区种群世代间的影响范围和作用程度的大小存在差异。通州世代间隔在8个以内时,种群具有明显的自相关性,而世代间隔少于3~4个时,有最强的自相关性。凤阳世代间隔在9个世代以内,高峰日蛾量存在自相关性,而世代间隔少于4时有最强的自相关性。讨论了地统计学方法在害虫时空动态、迁飞规律及预测预报上的应用。
This paper summarizes the basic methods of geostatistics in spatiotemporal dynamics analysis of insect populations. Based on this method, the temporal and spatial characteristics of population dynamics and their autocorrelation in different generations of 23 generations of rice leafroller in Tongzhou City, Anhui Province and Fengyang County, Anhui Province are analyzed. , And simulated the population of each generation over the years. The results showed that there was an autocorrelation between accumulated moths and peak moths at a certain generation interval for each generation, and they were independent when the generational intervals exceeded a certain distance. There is a difference in the extent of the influence and the extent of the influence among the generations of the population in the two areas. Tongzhou generation interval of less than 8, the population has obvious autocorrelation, and the generation gap of less than 3 to 4, the strongest autocorrelation. Fengyang generation interval within nine generations, peak moth abundance of autocorrelation, while the generation gap less than 4, the strongest autocorrelation. This paper discusses the application of geostatistics to the temporal and spatial dynamics of pests, the rules of migration and forecasting.