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本文基于二位数制造业数据,探究了2000—2014年广东省制造业空间格局的演化及影响因素。研究表明,广东省制造业以2005年为拐点,总体呈现先集聚后分散的特征,但行业差异明显。技术密集型产业在珠三角地区保持高集聚的趋势,资本密集型及劳动密集型产业则以不同的扩散速度趋于分散。空间计量回归结果表明,劳动力成本上升及运输成本下降并非广东制造业空间格局演化的主要原因,市场潜力及产业内联系所带来的正外部性抵消了土地等成本提升所带来的负效应。而且,各种影响因素在不同行业的作用不同:市场潜力显著影响劳动密集型产业,资本密集型产业的空间集聚受政府行为影响较大,产业联系则促进技术密集型产业的集聚。
Based on the double-digit manufacturing data, this paper explores the evolution of manufacturing spatial patterns in Guangdong and their influencing factors from 2000 to 2014. The research shows that the manufacturing industry of Guangdong Province has turned into a turning point in 2005, showing the characteristics of dispersion after first gathering, but there are obvious differences in the industry. Technology-intensive industries maintain a high concentration in the Pearl River Delta region, and capital-intensive and labor-intensive industries tend to be dispersed at different diffusion rates. The results of spatial econometric regression indicate that the increase in labor costs and the decrease in transportation costs are not the main reasons for the evolution of Guangdong’s manufacturing spatial pattern. Market potential and the positive externalities brought about by internal links in industries offset the negative effects brought about by the increase in land and other costs. Moreover, various influencing factors have different roles in different industries: market potential has a significant impact on labor-intensive industries, and spatial agglomeration of capital-intensive industries is greatly affected by government actions, while industrial linkages promote the concentration of technology-intensive industries.