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应用基于pp回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件系统,选择了b值、Cb值、Ab值等15个测震学参量,建立了它们与响应变量(未来任意时段内最大地震震级)的pp回归模型.对新疆4个主要地震区分别给出了各区的建模岭函数及综合预报模型.回顾检验及实际预报结果均表明该模型的预报效果是较为理想的.
Based on pp regression theory, a total of 15 seismometric parameters such as b value, Cb value and Ab value were selected to establish the pp regression between them and the response variable (the largest earthquake magnitude in any future period) model. The modeling ridge functions and comprehensive forecast models for each of the four major earthquake regions in Xinjiang are given. Both the retrospective test and the actual forecast result show that the forecasting result of this model is ideal.