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根据自有住房家庭对未来住房价格变动的异质性预期,文章在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型框架下,将自有住房家庭分为储蓄型和借贷型家庭。在借贷型家庭和住房开发企业两个部门中引入动态贷款价值比宏观审慎政策工具,同时引入中央银行通过动态贷款价值比调控信贷总量的思想。反事实仿真结果表明,最低首付比的适度调低使住房价格波动对自有住房家庭消费率影响的直接财富效应显著,且对借贷型家庭消费率影响的资产负债表效应显著。但最低首付比的过度调低使住房价格波动对自有住房家庭消费率影响的替代效应显著。
According to the heterogeneous expectation of future homeownership changes on housing prices, the article divides the self-owned housing families into savings-oriented and borrowed families under the framework of the dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. In the two departments of lending-type households and housing development enterprises, we introduce the macro-prudential policy instruments of dynamic loan value, and introduce the idea of controlling the total amount of credit by the central bank through the dynamic loan value ratio. Counterfactual simulation results show that the direct effect of housing price volatility on housing consumption rate of private households is significant, and the effect of balance sheet on borrowing family consumption rate is significant. However, the over-reduction of the minimum down payment ratio makes the substitution effect of the impact of housing price fluctuations on the household consumption rate of self-owned houses significant.