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文章采取人口预测、经济预测等多种预测方法,对我国2010～2050年劳动力供给和需求进行了预测。预测结果表明,2016年后我国劳动力供给和需求的关系将发生反转,即使总和生育率到2020年提升至更替水平2.1并假定一直保持不变,我国也将长期面临劳动力短缺的问题,低生育水平的巨大惯性对我国中长期劳动力市场具有不可逆转的影响。文章通过比较不同生育水平下劳动力供给和需求之间矛盾的阶段性特点,提出短期促进就业,中长期促进人口、经济健康持续发展的全方位政策。
In this paper, a variety of forecasting methods, such as population forecasting and economic forecasting, are used to forecast the labor supply and demand in China from 2010 to 2050. The forecast results show that the relationship between labor supply and demand in our country will reverse after 2016. Even if the total fertility rate rises to replacement level 2.1 by 2020 and is assumed to remain unchanged, China will also face the problem of labor shortage for a long time, and the problem of low birth rate The huge horizontal inertia has an irreversible effect on the medium- and long-term labor market in our country. By comparing the stages of contradiction between labor supply and demand at different levels of fertility, the paper puts forward a comprehensive policy of short-term employment promotion, population growth in the medium and long term, and sustained and healthy economic development.