Changes in Extreme Events as Simulated by a High-Resolution Regional Climate Model for the Next 20-3

来源 :大气和海洋科学快报:英文版 | 被引量 : 0次 | 上传用户:monowing
下载到本地 , 更方便阅读
声明 : 本文档内容版权归属内容提供方 , 如果您对本文有版权争议 , 可与客服联系进行内容授权或下架
论文部分内容阅读
In this paper, the changes in temperature and precipitation extremes over the next 20-30 years (2021-2050) in relative to the present day (1986-2005) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario are analyzed based on a high-resolution climate change simulation performed by a regional climate model (the Abdus Salam International Center for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) RegCM3). The extreme indices of summer days (SU), frost days (FD), and growing season length (GSL) for temperature and simple daily intensity index (SDII), number of days with precipitation ≥10 mm d-1 (R10), and consecutive dry days (CDD) for precipitation are used as the indicators of the extremes. The results show that the indices simulated by RegCM3 in the present day show good agreement with the observed. A general increase in SU, a decrease in FD, and an increase in GSL are found to occur in the next 20-30 years over China. A general increase in SDII, an increase in R10 over western China, and a decrease in R10 in north, northeast, and central China are simulated by the model. Changes in CDD are characterized by a decrease in the north and an increase in the south and the Tibetan Plateau.
其他文献
结合大量文献及工程实例 ,指出地震区隧道稳定性可以从定性和定量两方面分析评价。结合定性和定量的具体方法 ,提出了实用的地震区隧道稳定性分析流程 ,并指出隧道设计、施工
在介绍了宽带网络及其认证方式的基础上,论述了802.1x认证方式以及和其它认证技术的比较,并提出了802.1x协议在宽带接入认证中的实现方法。 Based on the introduction of the
汽车与高速公路防撞护栏端头相撞是极其危险的事故。本文利用有限元分析软件 L S- DYNA对汽车与半刚性波形护栏端头进行仿真模拟试验 ,根据其试验数据和研究结果进一步提出半
对某型筒装导弹的贮存薄弱环节进行分析,并建立影响导弹贮存可靠性的故障树.利用现有的加速寿命试验模型对导弹关键部件进行加速寿命试验,其基本任务就是通过试验对模型参数
利用ARIS建模方法与工具,对战时装备修理业务流程进行了仿真研究.以陆军某机步师某型装备为例,给出了战时修理业务的主流程模型以及各分支模型,通过仿真运行及结果分析,得出
澳柯玛拥有新一代MEP保鲜技术。澳柯玛冰箱MEP保鲜科技,开启使用磁能生物保鲜的新篇章,澳柯玛鲜立方系列冰箱通过设置在冷藏室内的磁能发生器,产生三维静态稳定磁场,在冰箱内
第八届中国俱乐部杯帆船挑战赛日前在厦门五缘湾帆船港顺利举行。该项比赛创办于2006年,是国内主要业余航海赛事之一。竞赛级别为J80级帆船,竞赛模式分资格赛、对抗赛阶段,其
In this study, the authors simulate the East Asian climate changes in the mid-Pliocene (~3.3 to 3.0 Ma BP) with the Community Atmosphere Model version 3.1 (CAM3
The relationship between the late spring North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the summer extreme precipitation frequency (EPF) in the middle and lower reaches o
Based on 150-year simulations of a regional climate model, RegCM3, under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the effective drought in