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以广州市2014年登革热疫情早期11周内679个登革热病例数据为例,提出了一种基于扩展Knox检验的疾病时空传播网络模型,研究登革热疫情早期时空传播特征。首先,应用扩展Knox检验方法发现2周1 km内、1周5~7 km两个时空标度下,病例之间具有显著的时空交互特征;其次,提取两个时空标度下的病例点对,分别构造时空近邻传播(STAT)网络和日常移动传播(HDMT)网络;最后,对STAT和HDMT传播网络的同配性、空间特征、网络中心位置进行对比分析。结果显示,广州市登革热传播是空间近邻交叉传播和空间扩散传播的混合传播模式;利用STAT网络亲近中心度标识出的“爆发中心”与病例空间核密度中心基本重合,HDMT网络中介中心度标识出的“扩散中枢”多位于城市快速交通干线附近。
Taking the data of 679 dengue cases within the first 11 weeks of dengue outbreak in 2014 in Guangzhou, for example, this paper proposed a time-space-propagation network model based on extended Knox test to study the characteristics of space-time transmission of dengue fever early in time. First, using the extended Knox test, we found that there are significant temporal and spatial interactions between the two spatial scales within 1 km in 2 weeks and 5 ~ 7 km in 1 week. Secondly, (STAT) network and the daily mobile communication (HDMT) network respectively. Finally, the sameness, spatial characteristics and network center position of STAT and HDMT transmission networks are compared and analyzed. The results showed that dengue fever transmission in Guangzhou was a mixed mode of transmission of spatial neighbor transmission and spatial diffusion transmission. The “outbreak center” identified by the proximity of STAT network basically coincided with the case space nuclear density center, and the HDMT network intermediary center Identified “proliferation center ” is located near the city’s rapid transit trunk.