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在总结协调发展水平测算时应该注意的一些问题的基础上,提出建立PLSPM-GIA模型对3E系统协调发展水平进行估算。首先设计3E系统综合发展指标体系,运用PLS路径模型对中国1996-2014年的各系统的综合发展水平进行了计算,然后利用灰色关联模型度量了系统协调度,最后综合考虑系统的发展水平和协调水平,得出系统的协调发展水平。研究表明:①PLSPM-GIA模型能够弥补现有方法的缺陷,而且适用于系统协调发展水平的测度;②从发展水平来看,由高到低依次为经济子系统、能源子系统和环境子系统;③从系统的协调度来看,2005年之前能源经济子系统和能源环境子系统的协调度先上升后缓慢下降,由于受到经济环境子系统协调度缓慢下降的影响,3E系统协调度呈缓慢下降态势,2005年以后3E系统及其子系统的协调度下降趋势明显;④从协调发展水平来看,目前除经济环境子系统外,3E系统和其他子系统均处于轻度失调状态。
On the basis of summarizing some problems that should be noticed when calculating the level of coordinated development, it is proposed to establish PLSPM-GIA model to estimate the level of coordinated development of 3E system. Firstly, the 3E index system of comprehensive development of the system was designed, the PLS path model was used to calculate the comprehensive development level of each system in China from 1996 to 2014, and then the system coordination degree was measured by using the gray relational model. Finally, the development level and coordination of the system were comprehensively considered Level, come to the system level of coordinated development. The results show that: (1) The PLSPM-GIA model can make up for the deficiencies of the existing methods and is suitable for measuring the level of coordinated development of the system; (2) From the development level, economic, energy and environmental subsystems are in descending order; (3) From the perspective of system coordination, the coordination between the energy economy subsystem and the energy and environmental subsystem first slowed down before 2005 and the coordination degree of 3E system declined slowly due to the slow decline of the coordination of the economic environment subsystem The trend of coordination among 3E systems and their subsystems has been declining significantly since 2005. ④ From the perspective of coordinated development, all 3E systems and other subsystems are currently in a mild state of imbalance except for the economic environment subsystem.