把生产与市场结合起来并考虑供需关系时,系统的生产方差研究显得非常必要.讨论的模型为两级的串行生产线,利用结构随机矩阵理论和马氏过程的协方差结构,给出了在一个给定时间区间内系统生产成品数方差的有效算法.基于正态分布,这个算法对订单满足的程度进行了概率刻划.文中的数值分析充分体现了这个算法的有效性和实用性 It is very necessary to study the production variance of the system when combining the production with the market and considering the supply-demand relationship.The model discussed is a two-level serial production line, using the structure stochastic matrix theory and the Markov process covariance structure, An efficient algorithm for calculating the variance of the finished product in a given time interval.Based on the normal distribution, this algorithm performs a detailed characterization of the degree of order fulfillment.The numerical analysis in this paper fully shows the validity and practicability of this algorithm