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“可公度”方法是我们在1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报中引用的主要方法,为此本文结合其具体分析,和针对“可公度”方法所隐含的物理意义,尤其是翁文波先生对“可公度周期性扩张”的贡献,结合实例进行了隐伸性的讨论。其中涉及“可公度”方法由提丢斯和波特“平均运动”的天体运行,和翁文波以“信息确定性”发展为“周期性扩张”的特殊性信息的周期性,并可用于自然灾害的预测;及其“信息保真性”不同于数量的意义和作法等所涉及的观念的变革性。
The method of “conscientiousness” is the main method we quoted in the forecast of the magnitude-7.6 earthquake of Taiwan on September 21, 1999. Therefore, in this paper, with its specific analysis and physical meaning implied in the method of commensurability, In particular, Mr. Weng Wenbo’s contribution to the “cyclical expansion of commensurable degree” discussed the implicitness with examples. Among them are the “commensurability” method, which is operated by celestial bodies of Titus and Porter’s “average movement” and the periodicity of Wen Wenbo’s “informational certainty” as the particular information of “cyclical expansion” and can be used for natural The prediction of disasters; and the transformativeness of the concepts involved in the “fidelity” of information that differ from the meaning and practice of quantity.