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针对日前计划负荷和来水预测不确定性带来的水电站群超短期调度中水位难以达到预控目标的问题,提出了基于超短期来水预报的大规模水电站群发电计划调整策略。利用超短期负荷预测信息和径流预测信息,以调度期末理想水位偏差为指标对电站进行排序,生成电站集合,实时调整日前发电计划,滚动生成超短期发电计划。以我国云南澜沧江、金沙江、大盈江和李仙江干流上的22座水电站为例验证该方法的正确性,实例结果表明,该方法可充分利用超短期预报成果,实时调整发电计划,最小化调度偏差,满足超短期调度的时效性、实用性、经济性的要求,可为类似工程提供参考。
Aiming at the problem that it is difficult to reach the pre-control target in ultra-short-term hydropower station short-term dispatching caused by the uncertainty of planned load and incoming water prediction, a strategy for adjusting large-scale hydropower station power generation plan based on ultra-short term water inflow forecast is proposed. Using the information of ultra-short-term load forecasting and runoff forecasting, the power station is sorted by the ideal water level deviation at the end of the scheduling period to generate a set of power plants. The power generation plan can be adjusted in real time and scrolled to generate an ultra-short-term power generation plan. The correctness of this method is verified by taking 22 hydropower stations on the Lancangjiang, Jinshajiang, Dayingjiang and Lixianjiang rivers in Yunnan as an example to verify the correctness of the method. The results show that this method can make full use of the results of ultrashort forecast, adjust the power generation plan in real time, minimize the scheduling Deviation to meet the ultra-short-term scheduling of timeliness, practicality, economic requirements, can provide a reference for similar projects.