论文部分内容阅读
目前全球范围内刮起了一阵退休年龄的改革风暴。在我国特有的国情下,退休年龄的延迟是否会对劳动力市场产生挤占效应,便成为当前争论的焦点。本文通过对我国劳动力市场就业现状以及特殊人口结构演变进行定量分析发现,我国已然具备延迟法定退休年龄的现实基础及潜在需求。基于此,本文在引入劳动参与率模型并对其完善的基础上,通过进一步的实证分析发现,退休年龄的延迟与一国的劳动力市场就业现状密切相关。按照目前劳动力市场现状,退休政策的严格执行不仅不会对劳动力市场产生挤占效应,反而有助于缓解较为严峻的就业压力。
At present, there is a storm of reform age in retirement age around the world. In our unique national conditions, whether the delay in retirement age will have a crowding-out effect on the labor market has become the focus of the current debate. Based on the quantitative analysis of the employment situation in our labor market and the evolution of special population structure, this paper finds that our country already has the realistic basis and potential demand for deferring the statutory retirement age. Based on this, on the basis of introducing the labor participation rate model and perfecting it, further empirical studies show that the delay of retirement age is closely related to the employment status of a country in the labor market. According to the current situation of the labor market, the strict implementation of the retirement policy will not only create a crowding-out effect on the labor market, but will help alleviate the more serious employment pressure.