第一部分宏观1.过去:2008年来的主动投资,在2012/2013年达惯性顶点,2015/2016年现断崖下跌以十年维度看宏观运行,脉络的起点是2008年开始的投资大扩张。观察到该轮投资的四个特征:1),下中上游全线扩张(样本中的商业地产、品牌服装、汽车、饮料灌装、化学制剂、PTA和PP、炼化)。2),行业扩张粗略顺序是:2009年基建-2010年地产、消费投资-2011、2012年制造业、重工业投资。这与当年“基建 Part One Macro 1. Past: Active investment in 2008 reached the peak of inertia in 2012/2013, and the current cliff drop in 2015/2016 saw macroeconomic operation in a decade-long dimension. The starting point of this vein is the big expansion of investment starting in 2008. Four characteristics of the round of investment were observed: 1) expansion of the middle and upper reaches across the board (commercial real estate, branded apparel, cars, beverage bottling, chemicals, PTA and PP, refinery). 2), the industry expansion in rough order: Infrastructure 2009 - 2010 real estate, consumer investment - 2011,2012 manufacturing, heavy industry investment. This is the year ”infrastructure