根据非线性动力学观点，提出了岩层运动预测的反演建模方法。研究表明，由于岩层运动的内在非线性机制，进行长期预测将会有较大误差，而对岩层运动进行短期动态新息预测是实现可靠预测的可行途径。文中的方法对煤爆、岩爆等动力现象的预测研究具有一定的参考价值。 According to the viewpoint of nonlinear dynamics, an inversion modeling method of rock movement prediction is proposed. The research shows that due to the inherent nonlinear mechanism of rock movement, long-term prediction will have greater error. However, short-term dynamic interest rate prediction of rock movement is a feasible way to achieve reliable prediction. The method in this article is of certain reference value for the prediction of dynamic phenomena such as coal explosion and rockburst.