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本文在Lucas(1987)模型的基础上引入消费习惯,在数值模拟中使用不同收入群体消费增长和波动的数据,得到以下主要结论:一是促进消费增长比平抑消费波动更重要;二是习惯强度对两类福利成本之比的影响取决于习惯的增长效应和波动效应哪一个占优;三是在权衡消费增长与波动的福利成本时,平抑消费波动的经济政策能为穷人带来更多的相对福利效应。所以就相关部门而言,在确保消费增长的同时,不应忽视低收入群体消费波动的福利成本。
Based on the Lucas (1987) model, this paper introduces the consumption habits and uses the data of consumption growth and fluctuation of different income groups in the numerical simulation. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, it is more important to promote the growth of consumption than to stabilize the fluctuation of consumption; The impact on the ratio between the two types of welfare costs depends on which of the habit growth effects and the volatility effects prevail. Third, when balancing the growth in consumption and the fluctuating welfare costs, economic policies that stabilize consumer volatility can bring more Relative welfare effects. Therefore, relevant departments concerned, while ensuring the growth of consumption, should not neglect the welfare costs of fluctuations in the consumption of low-income groups.