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本文采用景气指数等方法分析了物价的周期波动特征,并进行了物价走势的预测。结论认为,本轮物价波动中,PPI的波动幅度大于CPI,食品价格回落和输入型通胀压力逐渐减小等因素对CPI下行贡献度较高。本轮物价周期的下降阶段可能持续到2012年四季度,预计2012年CPI上涨率为2.6%左右,处于适度增长区间。政府应重点从原材料和农产品等供给面防范物价反弹。
In this paper, the use of boom index and other methods to analyze the cyclical fluctuations in price characteristics, and the prediction of price movements. The conclusion is that in the current round of price volatility, the fluctuation of PPI is greater than the CPI, and the factors such as the drop of food prices and the gradual decrease of input-type inflation pressure make a higher contribution to the downward trend of CPI. The current round of price cycle decline may continue until the fourth quarter of 2012, the 2012 CPI is expected to rise about 2.6%, in a modest growth range. The government should focus on preventing the price rebound from the supply side of raw materials and agricultural products.