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本文在揭示房地产价格系统结构特征的基础上,运用系统动力学的理论和方法构建了含有8个反馈回路、27个有效影响因素的房地产价格波动的系统动力学模型,以期对我国房地产价格波动的原因作出科学、合理的解释。模型分析表明,尽管房地产价格波动的影响因素众多、联系复杂,但宏观经济水平、供求均衡、宏观调控、人均可支配收入、地理位置和资源5个因素是影响我国房地产价格波动的关键因素。因此构建完善的房地产价格调控长效机制是促进我国房地产市场健康有序发展的有效措施。
On the basis of revealing the system structure characteristics of real estate price, this paper constructs a systematic dynamic model of real estate price fluctuation with 8 feedback loops and 27 effective influencing factors based on the theory and method of system dynamics, in order to analyze the real estate price fluctuation in our country Reason for a scientific and reasonable explanation. The model analysis shows that although there are many influential factors and complex links in the real estate price fluctuation, the five factors that affect macroeconomic level, supply and demand equilibrium, macroeconomic regulation and control, per capita disposable income, geographical location and resources are the key factors affecting real estate price fluctuations in our country. Therefore, building a sound long-term mechanism of real estate price regulation is an effective measure to promote the healthy and orderly development of China’s real estate market.