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人因失效是道路交通事故发生的主要原因。认知可靠性和失误分析方法(CREAM)可以追溯事故发生的根原因,并对事故隐患进行预测。它强调情景环境对人的行为的重要影响,较符合驾驶员可靠性分析的需求。研究了CREAM中的追溯分析方法在道路交通人因失效事件根原因分析中的应用,建立了道路交通事故的人因失效模式,对人因失效基本原因的分类和后果-前因关系进行归纳、整理和补充,提出了适用于道路交通人因失效事件的“后果-前因”追溯表和具体的追溯分析步骤。进而对其定量计算进行了探索,并通过实例探讨了其应用,得到事故发生的根原因。
Human failure is the main cause of road traffic accidents. Cognitive Reliability and Error Analysis (CREAM) can trace the root causes of accidents and predict the potential of accidents. It emphasizes the important influence of situational environment on human behavior and more in line with the needs of driver reliability analysis. This paper studies the application of retrospective analysis in CREAM to the root cause analysis of road traffic accidents due to failure, establishes the human factor failure mode of road traffic accidents, summarizes the classification and consequence of the cause of human failure - the antecedents, Sorting out and supplementing, put forward the “consequences - antecedents” retrospective table and the specific retrospective analysis steps applicable to the failure of road traffickers. Then the quantitative calculation is explored, and its application is discussed by examples to get the root cause of the accident.