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通过对科技保险政策实施与运作系统的分析和研究发现,该系统是一个具有多个智能决策节点的系统,结合多代理思想,可以将系统中的六项主要决策节点视为Agent,并以此为基础,设计多代理系统理论模型。科技保险政策与效果SD模拟模型是基于理论模型和系统动力学模拟工具而设计的用于实现科技保险政策及效果模拟的模型。以武汉市科技保险保费补贴政策为例的实证分析结果表明,科技保险政策与效果SD模拟模型在对我国科技保险政策及效果的模拟方面具有较强的有效性和科学性,可以实现对科技保险政策的运作效果进行预测性模拟,以辅助科技保险政策决策。同时,实证分析还证实了保费补贴政策效果对政策投入具有依赖性,即时性效果明显,但持续性效果有限。
Through the analysis and research on the implementation and operation of science and technology insurance policy, we find that the system is a system with multiple intelligent decision nodes. Combining with multi-agent theory, we can regard the six main decision nodes in the system as Agent, As the basis, design multi-agent system theory model. Policy and Effect of Technology Insurance SD simulation model is a model designed to realize science and technology insurance policy and effect simulation based on theoretical model and system dynamics simulation tools. The empirical analysis of Wuhan Science and Technology Insurance premium subsidy policy as an example shows that the SD insurance simulation model of science and technology insurance policies and effects has strong effectiveness and scientific in simulating China’s science and technology insurance policies and effects and can achieve the goal of science and technology insurance The operational effectiveness of the policy is predictively modeled to assist science and technology insurance policy decisions. At the same time, the empirical analysis also confirmed that the effect of the premium subsidy policy has a dependence on the policy input, the immediate effect is obvious, but the sustained effect is limited.