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针对现今高考志愿填报过程中容易出现“扎堆”与“冷门”等问题,本文借助经济学中的供求关系理论对其进行探究。异同移动平均线(MACD)理论是证券市场中常用的一种的常用指标,用于反映股票的买卖关系。受此启发,本文对异同移动平均线理论进行改进,同时借助广义自回归条件异方差模型(GARCH)对高考志愿填写这一事件进行建模,从而避免传统的志愿填报过程出现的“高分低录”等现象。
In view of the problems such as “get together ” and “cold ” in the process of the college entrance examination voluntary reporting, the paper explores the theory of supply and demand in economics. Similarity and Difference Moving Average (MACD) theory is commonly used in securities market, a common indicator used to reflect the buying and selling relations of the stock. Inspired by this, this paper improves on the theory of similarities and differences in moving average averages, and at the same time, models the college entrance examination volunteer to fill this event by means of the GARCH model of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) to avoid the traditional “ Low record ”and other phenomena.