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正确预测油气藏的产量对改善油气藏的开发生产效果和提高措施作业效益有着重要作用。针对油气藏动态特征，基于控制论的理论，运用合适的功能模拟模型，可精确地预报其动态指标。本文阐述几种平稳功能模拟模型的理论基础，选用随机序列均值不为零的ＡＲ模型，预报了处于开发初期的双阳油田挥发性油藏的产气量，其精度达到了工程要求
Correctly predicting the production of oil and gas reservoirs plays an important role in improving the development and production of oil and gas reservoirs and improving the operating efficiency of measures. According to the dynamic characteristics of oil and gas reservoirs, based on the theory of cybernetics, using appropriate functional simulation models, the dynamic indexes can be accurately predicted. This paper describes the theoretical foundation of several stationary functional simulation models. By using the AR model with non-zero mean of random sequence, the gas production of the volatile oil reservoir in Shuangyang Oilfield at the early stage of development is forecasted, and its accuracy meets the requirements of engineering