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本文利用1992年至2012年的中国季度数据,基于固定资产投资和产出的时间序列性质,对中国固定资产投资波动与经济周期波动的关联性进行了实证分析。研究发现,固定资产投资波动对经济周期具有显著的“放大效应”。上述实证结果蕴含着重要的政策含义:中国应通过推动金融体系改革、完善地方政府考核体系、丰富中央政府宏观调控手段等途径,平滑固定资产投资波动,并进而促进经济的稳定发展。
Based on the Chinese quarterly data from 1992 to 2012, based on the time-series nature of fixed assets investment and output, this paper empirically analyzes the correlation between the fluctuation of fixed assets investment and the economic cycle in China. The study found that the volatility of investment in fixed assets has a significant “magnifying effect ” on the economic cycle. The above empirical results contain important policy implications: China should smooth the fluctuation of investment in fixed assets by promoting the reform of the financial system, perfecting the assessment system of local governments and enriching the macro-control measures of the central government, thereby further promoting the steady economic development.