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在不确定环境下,当难以甚至无法预测未来科技和市场将如何变化的时候,如何开展产品和服务创新?通过将效果推理理论拓展至在位企业,分析效果推理和因果逻辑对于探索式创新以及开发式创新的影响,同时考察探索式创新和开发式创新对于企业绩效提升的作用。利用183份调查问卷的结构方程模型实证研究发现:效果推理的先前承诺和实验原则以及因果推理对探索式创新有显著的正向影响,而效果推理的可承受损失原则对探索式创新有显著的负向影响;对于开发式创新,因果推理有显著的正向影响,而效果推理没有显著的影响;探索式创新和开发式创新对于企业绩效都有显著的正向影响。实证研究结果说明在探索式创新中,决策者混合运用效果推理和因果推理逻辑,而在开发式创新中则主要运用因果推理逻辑。
How can we innovate products and services when uncertain and uncertain future technologies and markets will change? By extending the theory of effect reasoning to the firm in place, analytic reasoning and causal logic are essential for exploratory innovation as well as The impact of development innovation, and at the same time examine the role of exploratory innovation and development innovation in improving enterprise performance. Empirical studies using 183 structural equation models of questionnaires found that the previous promises and experimental principles of effect reasoning and causal reasoning had a significant positive impact on exploratory innovation while the principle of enduring loss of effect reasoning had a significant impact on exploratory innovation Negative impact; for the development of innovation, causal reasoning has a significant positive impact, while the effect of reasoning has no significant effect; exploratory innovation and development-oriented innovation for business performance has a significant positive impact. The empirical results show that in exploratory innovation, policymakers use the combination of effect reasoning and causal reasoning, while in the development of innovation, they mainly use causal reasoning logic.