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文章对Barlevy的R&D投资波动模型进行了扩展,建立了R&D投资、风险投资与宏观经济总量(GDP)波动这三者之间的逻辑联系机制。论文认为,当宏观经济处于下行阶段时,企业进行R&D投资的机会成本较小,企业适于增加R&D投资。但是,企业此时进行投资的风险性也很大,有必要引入能承担更高风险的风险投资基金。风险投资的进入提高了企业的R&D投资资金和技术创新成功概率,并增进了宏观经济增长潜力。论文对12个国家在1995-2010年期间的R&D投资、风险投资和宏观经济周期性波动之间的关系进行了Granger因果检验,检验结果进一步证实了模型中的有关推论。论文最后建议,在我国经济增长较为缓慢阶段,我国应进一步开放资本市场,鼓励和引导更多社会资金进入创业风险投资领域。通过引入更多的风险投资,提高企业进行R&D投资和技术创新的动力,培育宏观经济在未来各个时期增长的潜力。
The article extends Barlevy’s R & D investment volatility model and establishes a logical connection between R & D investment, venture capital and macroeconomic fluctuations. The dissertation holds that when the macroeconomy is in the downstage, the opportunity cost of doing R & D is lower and the enterprises are more willing to invest in R & D. However, enterprises are also very risky about investing at this time, so it is necessary to introduce venture capital funds that can take higher risks. The entry of venture capital has increased the probability of successful R & D investment funds and technological innovation and enhanced the potential for macroeconomic growth. The paper conducts a Granger causality test on the relationship between R & D investment, venture capital and cyclical fluctuations in 12 countries in 1995-2010. The test results further confirm the relevant inferences in the model. Finally, the paper suggests that in the period of slow economic growth in our country, our country should further open the capital market and encourage and guide more social funds into the field of venture capital investment. By introducing more venture capital investment, enterprises will be motivated to invest in R & D and technological innovation so as to cultivate the potential for macroeconomic growth in various periods in the future.