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本文参照国际货币基金组织的分析框架从贸易、投资、金融市场、宏观经济政策等渠道分析了中国经济对其他亚洲发展中国家的外溢效应。利用向量自回归模型和脉冲反应函数模拟得出的结果表明,中国经济增长在短期能直接带动其他亚洲发展中国家的经济增长,中国对其他亚洲发展中国家的进口和直接投资将产生长期、持续的正向溢出效应。这一结果进一步证实了我国推动“一带一路”战略,全方位加强与其他亚洲发展中国家合作的重要战略意义。
This article analyzes the spillover effect of China’s economy on other Asian developing countries from the perspectives of the IMF, such as trade, investment, financial markets and macroeconomic policies. The results of vector autoregression model and impulse response function show that China’s economic growth can directly stimulate the economic growth of other Asian developing countries in the short term. China’s import and direct investment in other Asian developing countries will have a long-term and sustained The positive spillover effect. This result further confirms the important strategic significance of our strategy of promoting “the Belt and Road” and all-round cooperation in strengthening cooperation with other Asian developing countries.