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借用部分同级别坝高、高宽比接近拱坝的相关数据,利用人工神经网络建立的拱坝坝踵应力和上游水位之间的函数关系σ=f(H),计算出坝踵应力的均值、标准差.根据可靠度理论分析选取上游水位和坝踵应力为随机变量和根据最大拉应力破坏准则建立坝踵混凝土开裂的功能函数.最后,利用蒙特卡罗法进行坝踵破坏(失效)概率计算,得出拱坝坝踵的破坏(失效)概率.在拱坝可行性设计论证阶段,借用部分同级别坝高、高宽比接近拱坝的相关数据,根据拟建拱坝的上游设计水位可以初步估算坝踵区的拉应力值,采用此方法论证拱坝坝踵开裂失效概率是可行的.
Based on the data of partial dam height and aspect ratio close to the arch dam, the mean value of the heel stress is calculated by using the function σ = f (H) between the arch dam heel stress and the upstream water level established by the artificial neural network , Standard deviation.According to the reliability theory, the functional function of the dam heel concrete cracking is established by selecting the upstream water level and heel stress as random variables and the maximum tensile stress failure criterion.Finally, the probability of dam heel failure (failure) The probability of failure (failure) of the dam heel of the arch dam is obtained.In the stage of feasibility design and demonstration of the arch dam, some relevant dam height and aspect ratio near the arch dam are borrowed, and according to the upstream design water level of the arch dam It is feasible to estimate the tensile stress value in the heel area initially. It is feasible to prove the failure probability of the dam heel by using this method.