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牛鞭效应是市场活动中普遍存在的高风险现象,从旅游服务供应链角度来看,旅游产业中也存在着牛鞭效应。这种供应链中需求放大的现象会对整个供应链的运作水平造成严重影响。本文从牛鞭效应存在的普遍性出发,分析了牛鞭效应产生的六个主要原因;采用计量模型方法分别从需求信号处理、短缺博弈和价格波动三个方面,着重分析了导致旅游产业中产生牛鞭效应的机理;给出了优化旅游服务供应链的结构、强化旅游者知情权和建立契约形成联盟等削弱牛鞭效应的解决方案。
The bullwhip effect is a common high-risk phenomenon in the market activity. From the perspective of tourism service supply chain, the bullwhip effect also exists in the tourism industry. This phenomenon of demand amplification in the supply chain will have a serious impact on the operation of the entire supply chain. Based on the prevalence of bullwhip effect, this paper analyzes the six main causes of the bullwhip effect. The econometric model is used to analyze the three major causes of the bullwhip effect, which are the demand signal processing, shortage game and price volatility. The mechanism of the bullwhip effect; the solution to optimize the structure of the tourism service supply chain, strengthen the tourist’s right to information and establish a contract to weaken the bullwhip effect.