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基于武汉市1986-2014年地区GDP和实际利用外资、进出口总额等数据,采用误差修正模型和格兰杰因果检验等计量工具,对外商投资和对外贸易对武汉市经济增长的影响进行了分析。结论表明:尽管短期作用不明显,但武汉市进出口贸易推动了武汉市经济增长;武汉市经济增长是吸引外资的重要因素,但是外资却没有显著推动经济增长;同时武汉市面临外资利用较少及其结构的不利变化、外贸依存度较低且外贸企业中进行外贸业务的企业比例较低、外贸名优品牌缺乏等现状,建议对此进行相应的政策调整。
Based on the data of regional GDP, actual utilized foreign capital, total amount of import and export, etc. from 1986 to 2014 in Wuhan, the paper uses error correction model and Granger causality test to analyze the impact of foreign investment and foreign trade on economic growth in Wuhan. . The conclusion shows that although the short-term effect is not obvious, the import and export trade in Wuhan promotes the economic growth in Wuhan. The economic growth in Wuhan is an important factor in attracting foreign investment, but the foreign investment does not significantly promote the economic growth. Meanwhile, Wuhan City faces less utilization of foreign capital The unfavorable change of the structure, the low degree of dependence on foreign trade, the low proportion of enterprises conducting foreign trade in foreign trade enterprises and the lack of famous brands in foreign trade. Therefore, it is suggested that the relevant policies be adjusted accordingly.