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针对我国道路交通安全风险评价问题,从交通事故发生率、交通事故严重程度和交通事故发生趋势三个方面,筛选出反映交通安全综合风险的9项指标.引入灰色关联分析法确定指标权重,运用模糊综合评价法定量计算风险值,并将方法应用于我国其中的31个省市2013年道路交通安全综合风险评价研究.结果表明:我国道路交通安全风险平均值为55.1679.西北地区和东南地区的9个省市属于高风险等级,中风险区域广泛分布于中部、东北和西南地区;低风险区域为吉林省、内蒙古自治区、贵州省和北京市.
Aiming at the problem of road traffic safety risk assessment in our country, nine indicators reflecting the comprehensive risk of traffic safety are screened out from the following aspects: the incidence of traffic accidents, the severity of traffic accidents and the occurrence of traffic accidents.We introduce the gray relational analysis method to determine the weight of indicators, The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is used to calculate the risk value quantitatively and the method is applied to the research on the comprehensive road traffic safety risk assessment of 31 provinces and cities in China in 2013. The results show that the average risk of road traffic safety in our country is 55.1679.The average risk of road traffic safety in our country is in the northwest and southeast Nine provinces and cities belong to the high-risk category. The middle-risk regions are widely distributed in the central, northeast and southwest regions. The low-risk regions are Jilin Province, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Guizhou Province and Beijing Municipality.