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为深入研究设施农作物风险条件下最优生产组合,在target-MOTAD(The minimization of total absolute deviation model)模型基础上,打破风险状态概率等值恒定限制,对target-MOTAD模型进行改进。利用南京市六合区设施农户抽样调查数据,运用target-MOTAD改进模型实证研究设施农业中“高设施,高风险,高收益”与“低设施,低风险,低收益”2类情境的设施农户的生产经营状况以及不同风险条件下最优组合种植策略。结果表明:利用伪随机数模拟风险状态发生概率的target-MOTAD改进模型研究不确定情境的设施农作物组合种植计划是正确和有效的;南京市六合区“典型设施农户”的种植结构需要调整。综合考虑风险状态的规律和生产资料投入等因素,target-MOTAD改进模型更接近现实种植情况,可为不确定情境下设施农作物种植计划决策提供借鉴。
Based on the model of target-MOTAD (The minimization of total deviation model), this paper breaks through the constant constant of the probability of risk state, and improves the target-MOTAD model. Using the sample survey data of facility farmers in Liuhe District of Nanjing City, the target-MOTAD improved model is used to empirically study the situation of “high facilities, high risk, high yield” and “low facility, low risk and low income” Of the production and management of farmers and the optimal combination of planting strategies under different risk conditions. The results show that using the target-MOTAD model of pseudorandom number to simulate the probability of occurrence of risk state, it is correct and effective to study the planted crop plant combination plan in uncertain situation. The planting structure of “typical facility farmer ” need to be adjusted . Considering the rules of risk state and input of means of production, the target-MOTAD improved model is closer to the actual planting situation, which can be used as a reference for decision-making of facility crop planting under uncertainty.