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虽然每年春节过后猪肉价格回落已经成为常态,但是今年开春的这波降价潮让养殖户和经营户感觉格外“寒冷”。蛇年春节前多地生猪价格直逼18元/kg。不过春节需求旺季过后,随着终端消费需求的萎缩和供求关系的变化,猪价肉价均呈下行趋势。目前母猪存栏仍在历史高位,往后几个月的生猪潜在供应量仍然很大,而且下游需求受到2012年末至今“作风新政”、“黄浦江死猪”和“H7N9禽流感”三重影响的叠加,养猪亏损情况短期并不能由于收储而得到扭转。而猪周期拐点很可能会在三季度到来。
Although pork prices have become normal after the Spring Festival every year, this wave of price surges in the spring of this year has caused farmers and business operators to feel particularly “cold.” Snake year before the Spring Festival live pig prices almost equal to 18 yuan / kg. However, after the peak season for the Spring Festival, with the shrinking of consumer demand and changes in the supply and demand, the price of pork has shown a downward trend. At present, the stock of sows is still at historic highs, and the potential supply of pigs in the next few months will still be very large, and the downstream demand will be affected by the “new policy of work style”, “the pigs of the Huangpu River” and “H7N9 fowls Flu ”triple superposition, pig losses in the short term can not be reversed due to receipt and storage. Swine cycle inflection point is likely to come in the third quarter.