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采用北江流域10个水文站点1959-2005年日流量数据,运用滑动秩和检验法(Mann-Whitney U test)和AMOC检验法确定样本最佳突变点,采用Mann-Kendall(MK)检验法检测时间趋势性,最后结合广义可加模型(GAMLSS)分别构建洪水量级和频率与影响因子的非平稳性模型.研究表明:1)北江流域年及季节洪峰流量普遍呈下降或显著下降趋势,在1990年发生突变,但年最大洪峰无显著变化趋势;2)1990年之后,最大三场洪水及重现期大于10年的洪水事件多集中发生,且洪水发生频率、量级及峰现时间均发生较大改变;3)LOGNO分布为年最大洪峰流量序列最优极值分布,计算出非平稳性条件下北江流域4个站点百年一遇设计洪水流量值,并分别以时间(Model 1)和气候指标(Model 2)为解释变量对洪水发生次数进行模拟分析,充分反映洪水发生次数的随机过程,为区域防洪减灾提供理论依据.
By using daily flow data from 1959 to 2005 in 10 hydrological stations in Beijiang River Basin, the best mutation point was determined by Mann-Whitney U test and AMOC test, and Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used to test the time Trend and the non-stationary model of flood magnitude and frequency and influence factor are combined respectively with GAMLSS.The results show that: 1) The annual and seasonal peak flow of Beijiang River Basin generally decline or decrease significantly, and in 1990 However, the annual maximum flood peak had no significant change trend. (2) After 1990, the maximum three floods and flood events with recurrence of more than 10 years were concentrated, and the occurrence frequency, magnitude and peak time of flood occurred The distribution of LOGNO is the optimal extreme distribution of annual maximum flood peak flow rate, and the design flood flow rate of four stations in Beijiang River Basin under non-stationary conditions is calculated, The model (Model 2) simulates and analyzes the number of floods as an explanatory variable, fully reflects the random process of flood occurrence frequency and provides a theoretical basis for flood control and disaster mitigation in the region.